How is My Sales Forecast Calculated in UPilot CRM?

UPilot CRM uses the pipeline not only to show you how your deals are progressing, but also to calculate an accurate sales forecast depending on the probabilities associated with each pipeline stage.

The CRM uses a weighted probability system to calculate the forecast.

To keep things simple, let’s assume there are 3 stages in your pipeline:

  • Stage A: Probability – 10% and deal value of $1000
  • Stage B: Probability – 50% and deal value of $2000
  • Stage C: Probability – 90% and deal value of $3000

Using the above data, the total forecast would be calculated as:

 

[(Probability A)*(Deal value A)] +  [(Probability B)*(Deal value B)] + [(Probability C)*(Deal value C)]

= (10%*$1000) + (50%*$2000) + (90%*$3000)
= 100 +  1000 + 2700
= $3800

This means that based on the current scenario, you can expect  a total sales of $3,800 from your pipeline in the coming months.

But…

What if you want to check the forecast for each of the coming months? This is calculated using the ECD (Expected Closing Date) of each deal.

Taking the above data a step further:

Stage A (Prob: 10%) Stage B (Prob: 50%) Stage C (Prob: 90%)
Deal 1 – Closing in Sep – Value $300 Deal 3 – Closing in Sep – Value $300 Deal 6 – Closing in Sep – Value $3000
Deal 2 – Closing in Oct – Value $700 Deal 4 – Closing in Oct – Value $700
Deal 5 – Closing in Oct – Value $1000

Now, let’s say we want to calculate the forecast for September:

In this case, only the deals which are closing in September would be taken into account.

As such, the forecast for September would be:

= (10% of value of Deal 1) + (50% value of Deal 3) + (90% value of deal 6)

= 10%*$300 + 50%*$300 + 90%*$3000
= 30 + 150 + 2700
= $2,880

 

This article is a part of the ‘Accurate Forecasting’ series. Articles in this series include:

 

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